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☆ Yen clings to sharp gains after suspected intervention, Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen held its line against the dollar on Tuesday after making sharp gains the previous day in moves that traders said were sparked by suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. "There is clearly a possibility that the sharp and sudden lifts in the JPY were sparked by intervention. Official figures that would reveal whether intervention did in fact occur won't be available until late May. The Japanese currency still sits lower than it was before the Bank of Japan's policy announcement last week. The Fed is expected to strike a hawkish message, meaning more yen selling is likely, CBA's Kong said.

Persons: haven't, Masato Kanda, Carol Kong, bode, CBA's Kong, pare, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Trading, Markets, Bank of, Fed, Traders, European Central Bank Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Tokyo, Asia, Japan, U.S, Bank of England

☆ Currencies calm but cautious after a weary week
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. Eyes are on the yen this week, with the Bank of Japan's, or BOJ, Friday policy review the notable item on the economic calendar. The yen has been one of the biggest losers against the dollar this year, with losses mounting to 9%. The ECB's Robert Holzmann, however, said the ECB probably will not cut rates this year as much as planned if the Fed does not move. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden alluded last week to Britain's inflation slowing as expected.

Persons: Chris Weston, Weston, Kazuo Ueda, BoE, ECB policymaker Madis Muller, Christine Lagarde, Robert Holzmann, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Dave Ramsden, Sterling, Bitcoin Organizations: U.S ., Bank of Japan's, Federal Reserve, Monetary Fund, Bank, Washington , Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, ECB policymaker, ECB, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, East, Tehran, Iran, Washington, United States, Japan, South Korea, Washington ,, U.S

☆ Here's what 12 European Central Bank members said about interest rates this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The ECB opted to hold rates steady in April and next meets to vote on monetary policy on June 6. Christine Lagarde, president of the ECBThe ECB's figurehead delivered a firm message that reflected her statements in recent press conferences: markets should expect an interest rate cut soon, barring major surprises. watch nowGabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of IrelandMakhlouf said the most recent data sets had shifted his view on rates. "We don't follow the Fed... and now the ECB will be the central bank to be followed," Šimkus said. One could have cut rates way back in March or even April," he continued, adding that he hoped a majority of Governing Council members would back a June cut.

Persons: Kirill Kudryavtsev, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Galhau, Villeroy, Karen Tso, Joachim Nagel, Germany's, Nagel, Robert Holzmann, Mario Centeno, Centeno, Gabriel Makhlouf, Central Bank of Ireland Makhlouf, we've, Makhlouf, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, Boris Vujčić, Jerome Powell, Vujčić, Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuania Šimkus, Šimkus, Edward Scicluna, Central Bank of Malta Scicluna, Kazāks, Bank of Latvia Kazāks, Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: Afp, Getty, International, European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB, Bank of France, Council, Austrian Central Bank One, Bank of Portugal, Central Bank of Ireland, National Bank of, Croatian National Bank, Federal, U.S, Bank of Lithuania, Central Bank of, Governing, Bank of Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, New York, ECB's, National Bank of Belgium, U.S, Europe, Central Bank of Malta, Bank of Latvia, Bank of Finland

☆ June is 'most probable' for first interest rate cut, ECB's Scicluna says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJune is 'most probable' for first interest rate cut, ECB's Scicluna saysEdward Scicluna, governor of the Central Bank of Malta and ECB policymaker, discusses the prospect of a rate cut at the central bank's next meeting.

Persons: ECB's Scicluna, Edward Scicluna Organizations: Central Bank of Malta, ECB policymaker

☆ ECB's Olli Rehn says geopolitics poses the biggest risk to the rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB's Olli Rehn says geopolitics poses the biggest risk to the rate outlookThe market reaction to geopolitical tensions has been muted but there is still a risk, and it could affect monetary policy, Olli Rehn, ECB policymaker and governor of the Bank of Finland, tells CNBC's Karen Tso.

Persons: ECB's Olli Rehn, Olli Rehn, Karen Tso Organizations: ECB policymaker, Bank of Finland

☆ ECB's Boris Vujčić: We will 'run our policy independently of the Fed'
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB's Boris Vujčić: We will 'run our policy independently of the Fed'Boris Vujčić, Croatian central bank governor and the European Central Bank's Governing Council Member, says there have been "obvious divergences between the U.S. and Europe since the start of the inflation cycle."

Persons: Boris Vujčić Organizations: Central Bank's Governing, Member, U.S Locations: Croatian, Europe

Alex Kraus | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesEuropean Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said Wednesday that a rate cut for the institution looks increasingly likely for June, but added that certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. watch nowEarlier Wednesday, Mario Centeno, governor of Portugal's central bank, said it was "about time to change this monetary policy cycle." The ECB's June interest rate decision would be "very important," he said. Markets are widely pricing in the first rate cut from the ECB to take place in June. watch nowEarlier this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that unless there were any major shocks, the ECB was on track to cut interest rates soon.

Persons: Joachim Nagel, Alex Kraus, Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Karen Tso, " Nagel, —, Mario Centeno, CNBC's Tso, Christine Lagarde, disinflation, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, wasn't Organizations: Deutsche Bundesbank, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Washington ,, Europe, Portugal's, Austrian, East

☆ Middle East tensions pose the biggest threat to rate cuts, European Central Bank policymaker says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Tensions in the Middle East pose the biggest threat to a prospective interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, according to ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann. "At this stage, I think the biggest threat is geopolitics, because we have seen what's happened in the Middle East," Austrian central bank governor Holzmann told CNBC's Karen Tso on Wednesday. Holzmann singled out ramifications for energy prices as the single most important factor in terms of Europe's fight to tame inflation. "As summer approaches we can start reducing the level of restriction in monetary policy, provided that inflation continues to fall as projected." He recently told Reuters that the ECB could moderate rates in June, indicating a growing consensus for a near-term move.

Persons: Robert Holzmann, Holzmann, Karen Tso, policymaker Olli Rehn, Rehn Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, International Monetary, Bank of, Brent, U.S, West Texas, Reuters Locations: Austrian, Hormuz, Iran, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, Bank of Finland, London

☆ ECB's Makhlouf: Expect a change in rates in June in the absence of shocks
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB's Makhlouf: Expect a change in rates in June in the absence of shocksGabriel Makhlouf, governor of the Central Bank of Ireland, tells CNBC's Karen Tso that he expects a change in the European Central Bank's policy on interest rates, barring any unexpected events.

Persons: Gabriel Makhlouf, Karen Tso Organizations: Central Bank of Ireland

☆ European Central Bank’s Lagarde signals June cut but says future rate path uncertain
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-20 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, at the ECB And Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt, Germany, on March 20, 2024. European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde on Wednesday reiterated that policymakers will consider bringing interest rates down in June, but sketched an uncertain path beyond that. "By June we will have a new set of projections that will confirm whether the inflation path we foresaw in our March forecast remains valid," Lagarde said in a speech in Frankfurt. Data available by June will also provide more insight into the path of underlying inflation and the direction of the labor market, according to Lagarde. So, there will be a period ahead where we need to confirm on an ongoing basis that the incoming data supports our inflation outlook."

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, ECB's

☆ European Central Bank chief economist says we need to 'take our time' to get rate cuts right
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The European Central Bank must take its time to get interest rate cuts right and will have a clearer picture of inflationary pressures in June, the institution's chief economist told CNBC. Lane, also a Governing Council member, said the euro zone central bank's March meeting had been an "important milestone" in the accumulation of evidence, and showed the "disinflation process has been ongoing." During the meeting, the ECB held rates and released updated macroeconomic projections, which lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 2.3% from 2.7%. Inflation in the 20-nation bloc eased to 2.6% in February. In a press conference following the March meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said market pricing on the timing of rate cuts — which indicate a start in June as of Thursday — "seems to be converging better" with the central bank's view.

Persons: what's, we've, Philip Lane, Steve Sedgwick, Lane, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB

☆ European Central Bank hints at June rate cut as it trims inflation forecast
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The European Central Bank on Thursday lowered its annual inflation forecast, as its confirmed a widely expected hold of interest rates. ECB President Christine Lagarde, meanwhile, suggested market pricing for a June rate cut was coming into line with policymakers' outlook. Looking ahead, staff see inflation hitting the ECB's 2% target in 2025 and cooling further to 1.9% in 2026. They meanwhile updated their forecast for economic growth for 2024 to 0.6% from 0.8%, as the euro zone's economic activity escapes its current stagnation. The ECB will be "laser-focused" on two areas of inflation that could surprise, namely wage growth and profit margins, Lagarde said.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB

☆ An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is sounding the alarm for a hard landing
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

An under-the-radar recession indicator in the bond market is raising alarm that the economy could be heading for a hard landing, according to ING Economics. Strategists at the analytics firm pointed to a tight correlation between US Treasury yields and Bund yields in Europe, with both yields slipping in recent weeks as markets reprice their interest rate expectations over the short-run. That was the case in the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in early 2023, when a sell-off fueled by the collapse of SVB led Treasury yields and Bund yields to tumble in tandem. "The correlation between UST and Bund yields is significantly elevated, which usually points to a hard-landing narrative," strategists said in a note on Wednesday. New York Fed economists, meanwhile, are pricing in a 61% chance the economy could tip into recession by January of next year.

Persons: SVB Organizations: ING Economics, Treasury, Business, European Central Bank, ING, Bank, UST, Bund, ECB, New York Fed Locations: Europe, Silicon

☆ CNBC Daily Open: What recession? The U.S. economy kept growing
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. President Joe Biden speaks with workers while visiting CS Wind, the largest wind tower manufacturer in the world, in Pueblo, Colorado, U.S., November 29, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Apple opens iPhone store in EuropeApple plans to open up its iPhone App Store in Europe to competitors. Some investors have been wary since Beijing has been struggling with a property debt crisis that has triggered financial risks across the broader economy.

Persons: Joe Biden, Tesla, Lagarde, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CS Wind, CNBC, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Europe Apple, Digital Markets, European Central Bank, Pro Locations: Pueblo , Colorado, U.S, Tesla, Europe, China, Beijing

☆ ECB's Lagarde responds to scathing staff survey: 'I'm very proud and honored to lead the institution'
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-25 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde looks on as she attends the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs, at the European Parliament, in Brussels, Belgium September 25, 2023. President Christine Lagarde on Thursday said she was "proud and honored" to leead the European Central Bank, after her leadership was slammed in a union-run survey of staff. The survey's qualitative responses suggested some staff believed she had created a negative atmosphere at the central bank, and that she spends "too much time on topics unrelated to monetary policy," IPSO said. Appearing unfazed, former politician and lawyer Lagarde said that the ECB conducted its own surveys in a "way that we can trust." The surveys are conducted by around 60% of employees, and also cover wages, respect in the workplace and workplace satisfaction, she said.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, IPSO, Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, ECB, IPSO Locations: Brussels, Belgium

FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) — European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will likely push back Thursday against expectations for quick interest rate cuts even as Europe's economy sputters and financial markets froth in hopes of cheaper credit that would boost business activity and stock prices. Lagarde has cautioned that the bank will make decisions based on the latest figures about the economy's health rather than making longer-term promises. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials discussed prospects for rate cuts at the bank's December meeting, and the U.S. central bank has indicated it would cut its key interest rate three times this year. Rate cuts make riskier investments like stocks more attractive than safer bets like money market accounts and certificates of deposit. Expectations for rate cuts have been fueled by the rapid drop of inflation in Europe to 2.9% in December from the peak of 10.6% in October 2022.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell, “ Lagarde, Yemen's Houthi Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Union Locations: FRANKFURT, Germany, Frankfurt, U.S, Europe, Ukraine, Berenberg, Suez, Africa

☆ Dollar struggles to retain gains even as March rate cut odds recede
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japan's yen was the notable mover in otherwise quiet trading, as it tiptoed away from Friday's one-month low of 148.80. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly on Friday said she believes the U.S. economy and monetary policy are in a "good place" and it is premature to think rate cuts are imminent. Short-term interest rate futures market show traders are betting interest rate cuts will start in May, with the probability of a March cut dropping below 50%, down from near 80% in the first weeks of January, according to CME Group data. "The USD holds a fair relationship with the evolving implied pricing for a March Fed cut, where rate cut probability falls the USD rallies, and vice versa," he wrote. Much of the gains have come from investor bets on Fed rate cuts.

Persons: dovish, Mary Daly, Chris Weston, Pepperstone Organizations: U.S, of Japan's, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Group, NatWest Markets, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: Japan, Europe, U.S

☆ Attack is the best market defense in international competition, ECB's Christine Lagarde says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

President of the European Central Bank (ECB) Christine Lagarde attends a session on the closing day of the World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, on January 19, 2024. Being strong means having a strong, deep market. Europe faces an uncertain future in its relationship with its closest international ally, following the U.S. vote. With that in mind, Lagarde said Europe should invest more in its capital markets in order to fund investments, such as, for instance, in the green transition. "Our competitive disadvantage compared to the U.S. is not subsidies but the function of our private capital market."

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Joe Biden, —, Donald Trump, Christian Linder, Linder Organizations: European Central Bank, Economic, Republican, German Finance Locations: Davos, Europe, U.S, United States

☆ Market moves could be self-defeating on rate cut expectations, ECB's Knot says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket moves could be self-defeating on rate cut expectations, ECB's Knot saysKlaas Knot, head of the Dutch central bank, discusses his outlook for monetary policy and interest rates, and why markets are "getting ahead of themselves."

Locations: Dutch

☆ ECB's de Galhau says monetary tightening has been more successful than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB's de Galhau says monetary tightening has been more successful than expectedGovernor of the Bank of France, François Villeroy de Galhau, discusses the potential for interest rate cuts and the transmission of monetary policy.

Persons: Galhau, François Organizations: Bank of France

☆ Dollar advances as traders weigh rate cut expectations, eyes on data
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders are back projecting cuts of 160 bps this year, up from expectations of 140 bps last week. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said the risk is that Waller could push back on market pricing for a March cut and show a lack of urgency to normalize policy. "That said, should he even remotely validate market pricing, then we should see U.S. 2-year bond yields fall further. Markets are pricing around 120 bps of rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2024, with the first one most likely in May. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell 0.43% to $0.6632, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.39% to $0.6176.

Persons: Hamish Pepper, Christopher Waller, Waller, Chris Weston, Weston, Bank's Joachim Nagel Organizations: U.S, Federal, Bank of Japan, Fed, Traders, Asset Management, Treasury, Bank of England, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S

☆ European Central Bank holds rates and trims its inflation forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-14 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

BRUSSELS, BELGIUM - NOVEMBER 27: Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank speaks during the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) meeting in Brussels, Belgium on Nevember 27, 2023. (Photo by Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu via Getty Images)The European Central Bank on Thursday held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row, as it revised its growth forecasts lower and announced plans to speed up the shrinking of its balance sheet. The latest staff macroeconomic projections see average real GDP expanding 0.6% in 2023, from a prior forecast of 0.7%. Headline inflation is meanwhile seen averaging 5.4% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025. Members see core inflation, excluding energy and food, averaging 5% this year and 2.7% in 2024, 2.3% in 2025, and 2.1% in 2026.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Dursun Aydemir, James Smith, CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche Organizations: European Central Bank, European Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, Getty, ECB, ING Locations: BRUSSELS, BELGIUM, Brussels, Belgium, Anadolu

☆ European Central Bank to focus on shrinking balance sheet as markets bet on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-13 | by ( Annette Weisbach | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesFRANKFURT — The European Central Bank meets this week with investors closely monitoring to see when the Frankfurt institution might start to cut interest rates. "Nonetheless, markets will probably have to correct some of their overoptimistic rate cut expectations once the ECB has spoken this Thursday." watch nowMoney markets are currently pricing in almost 150 basis points of rate cuts next year. The PEPP, or the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, is a flexible bond purchase program introduced during the coronavirus pandemic.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Holger Schmieding, Isabel Schnabel, Mark Wall Organizations: European Central Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, FRANKFURT, ECB, Reuters, Deutsche Bank Locations: Frankfurt, Berenberg

☆ ECB's Schnabel defends smaller balance sheet as debate heats up
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Balazs Koranyi | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

She said her "demand-driven" approach fitted the euro zone, whose 20 countries vary in economic strength and have separate banking systems. "A demand-driven system is well-suited for a heterogeneous currency union that may be prone to fragmentation," Schnabel said in an interview. "Such a system also likely limits the size of the central bank balance sheet." She conceded, however, that "it could make sense to have a mix of different tools", suggesting policymakers may be looking for a compromise in this complex yet crucial debate for the euro zone financial system. Loans to banks or a structural bond portfolio would come on top of this.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Ralph Orlowski, Schnabel, Philip Lane, Schnabel's counterargument, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: Frankfurt, Banking Congress, Old Opera, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT

☆ ECB hawk Schnabel scraps more rate hikes after 'remarkable' inflation drop
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Euro zone inflation tumbled to 2.4% last month from above 10% a year earlier after a record string of rate hikes. Schnabel, who had insisted just a month ago that rate hikes must remain an option because the "last mile" of the inflation fight may be the toughest, said she had shifted stance after three unexpectedly benign inflation readings in a row. "The most recent inflation number has made a further rate increase rather unlikely." "The recent inflation print has given me more confidence that we will be able to come back to 2% no later than 2025." Schnabel said weak growth as a result of the ECB's rate hikes is helping the inflation fight but that a deep or prolonged recession is unlikely, with recent survey data supporting expectations for a recovery.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Jim Urquhart, Schnabel, John Maynard Keynes, Christine Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de, Yannis Stournaras, Joachim Nagel, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Teton, Jackson, REUTERS, Rights, ECB, Reuters, Bank of Greece, Thomson Locations: Jackson , Wyoming, U.S, French, Francois Villeroy de Galhau

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